There really isn’t anything good to say about last week’s blowout loss to Oregon (OR). CU didn’t compete for 60 minutes (they stopped at the 28-minute mark), Montez didn’t come to play (he almost seemed pre-occupied), and CU made stupid mistakes. OR accepted all of it and made CU pay. As I stated last week, our hope rested with Montez and that is always a crapshoot. Depends how he is feeling that day.
That said, OR is playing at a level where we can only aspire to be and won’t be for a couple years. It’s a long way to the top of the Pac-12 South, especially when you are starting at the bottom. If there is any good news to be had from the game, it’s that our young players are getting valuable playing time (at the cost of W’s) and we didn’t have anyone else get hurt (and Shenault made a cameo appearance). Slim pickings I know, but we do what we can.
Week Eight Preview
CU (3-3) @ Washington State (3-3)
Well, unfortunately things don’t get easier with this week’s match up against the Washington State Cougars (WSU). CU travels to Pullman, WA which is a brutal place to play given the weather and talent WSU consistently has on their roster. Even when they are losing (WSU is riding a 3-game losing streak after winning their first three) they are still putting up Pac-12 leading offensive yards. Their air attack is potent and RB Max Borghi (straight out of nearby Pomona high school) is a weapon.
Copy and paste OR game assessment here. CU will give up a lot of points to WSU, but also has the opportunity to score a lot of points. Neither team’s defense is that good. CU’s only hope (wait for it) is Montez (digest; pause; throw up in mouth). If Montez plays lights out with his top shelf receiving core (time for Shenault to take over a game) CU has a chance. If not, well, this game will get ugly in a hurry. Montez has a proven ability to bounce back from bad performances. My guess he plays a solid game, but not good enough. CU loses this one 45-34.
Final Thought
For CU to become bowl eligible, they need to win three more games. The two mostly likely wins are @ UCLA on 11/2 and Stanford home on 11/9. The third win will most likely need to come from either upsetting WSU tomorrow night, or taking down USC at Folsom on 10/25.
With the loss to AZ last Saturday at Folsom Field, comes good news (there always has to be good news right?) and bad news. The good news is we still have over half the football season to go and it seems (repeat, it seems) we have a better football team than we did last year. Directionally correct if you will. Players seem bought in, recruits continue to commit and our coach refuses to whine or place blame. Coach Tucker is owning the fact that it’s all about the W’s. No one cares about the rest of it. That’s refreshing. Must be an SEC thing.
The bad news is with the loss to AZ is going to leave a mark. CU is not going to a bowl this year. Short of pulling off some upsets (tonight would certainly qualify), the remaining schedule doesn’t lend itself to winning three more games (to become bowl eligible). That said, we have seen in the Pac-12 South that any team can beat any team, and why not CU? It just sucks that CU has played itself into a spot where their back is against the wall, when in truth they should be undefeated and ranked in the top 15 in the nation. Instead a blocked extra point against Air Force and dumb penalties (and a dropped TD pass) against AZ, put them at 3-2. The teams just get harder from here, so CU is just going to have to play better (guessing Coach Tucker is using more motivational words than that though).
Week Seven Preview
CU (3-2) @ #13 Oregon (4-1)
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. It doesn’t get easier when CU kicks off against #13 Oregon tonight on the road in Eugene. As much as I would like to predict an upset (CU certainly was motivated after their last defeat (Air Force) and took it out on ASU on the road), CU’s secondary is in tatters, their defense line is so thin that it’s almost translucent, and to top it off, OR boasts one of the best QBs in the nation (Justin Herbert), one of the highest scoring offenses in the Pac-12 and a defense which has suddenly found it legs.
CU’s only hope is that Montez (ugh I hate having to put my only hope in this guy) decides to get his head on straight (why not after 29 straight starts), and plays lights out football. In the end, OR is going to be too much for CU to handle on defense. CU beats the 20-point underdog spread, but loses by double digits. Let’s just hope that they continue to improve with each and every game Tucker coaches. At this point, that is what a true Buff fan is looking for. A win tonight would be huge for this program, but we’ll just put that on the Christmas wish list for now.
Ok, so I hope all of you used the bye week to cool the engines a bit and get mentally ready for the deep dive into the rest of this season. Some of you probably just rolled your eyes wondering why in the world you would spend time thinking about CU when CU isn’t even playing.
Yet, for those mighty few (bound to grow throughout this season and seasons to come), you know what is at stake. Pride, relevance, respect, truth (well, maybe not truth) and honor. Yes, honor is at stake. These are our Colorado Buffaloes win or lose, so let’s get on with the winning, the bowl games and the rankings already. It’s been way too long. It all starts (continues) tomorrow.
Week Six Preview
CU (3-1) vs Arizona (3-1)
So with that said, who’s ready? Who’s ready to take over sole possession of the Pac-12 South standings? In a match-up of the two Pac-12 South leaders (yes, you read that correct), CU takes on the Wildcats of Arizona this Saturday at 2:40 pm at Folsom Field. Never have I seen a game where arguably the best two players on each team were game day decisions. For Arizona, their highly talented QB Kahlil Tate and running back JJ Taylor did not play last week in AZ’s impressive win over UCLA. On the Buff side of the ball, Laviska Shenault and Mustafa Johnson remain questionable.
This game is going to be high scoring. CU has proven that when their offense is clicking, it’s as good as anyone in the Pac-12. Yet, as stated, prior, CU’s defense is giving up too many points to have sustained success. Regardless which QB AZ puts on the field (their back-up QB Grant Gunnell played well last week), AZ will be able to drive the ball on CU. That said, CU has had two weeks to prepare for AZ. It will be interesting to see how Coach Tucker used that time, and what adjustments this coaching staff make to shore up the Buff defense. CU also has the advantage playing at home in what should prove to be a sell-out crowd (CU leads the Pac 12 in home attendance as a % of capacity with 102% this season).
Forecast calls sunny skies and mid-60’s. A perfect Fall day in the perfect town. No place better to be than at Folsom. CU wins this one in a relatively close, high-scoring affair, and goes 4-1 on the season. Hope the fans don’t feel compelled to rush the field. That would be weird. There’ll be time enough for that later this season.
To put CU’s road victory over (then) #24 Arizona State last Saturday night into perspective, one must go all the way back to 2002. If a program is bad for long enough (like CU), ugly records begin to pile up on each other. When CU is on the rebound (like CU is), those records begin to be dug up for analysis (yours truly) to experience a bit of vindication.
Since CU’s 2002 victory over UCLA, the Buffs have gone 0-36 against ranked teams on the road. That streak ended last Saturday. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, CU has a road record of 7-30 against Pac-12 teams. Three of those wins came in the anomaly 2016 season. While past performance isn’t indicative of future results (let’s pray that’s true), statistics would say CU had a 14% (7/30) chance of winning on the road and a 3% (1/37) chance if that team was ranked. NOW, add in CU playing without its top Offensive weapon (Laviska Shenault went down early) and Mustafa Johnson, one of their top defensive players and the odds of winning continue to plummet.
Yet, CU continued to fight (shoulder to shoulder). Series after series, the offense found a way to score. QB1 Montez played out of his mind and his all white jersey stayed that way (offensive line also played out of its mind – against the #2 ranked defense in the country nonetheless)., and when they had to the Defense got the stop they needed and special teams made the kick they needed. I would like to think it’s because in my last update where I asked for four quarters of play and use the Air Force defeat as a launching pad into Pac-12 play to turn this program around. Coach Tucker did not call me and tell me he hears me, but perhaps he was busy. Either way, done and done.
CU looks different, they play different, they are different under Coach Tucker. One “pump the brakes” comment I would make though is that the Buff defense isn’t very good. The Buffs are giving up an average of 31 points a game. For things to stay the same (i.e. turning this program around), things are going to have to change (defense needs to improve). That said, I like our chances and it’s going to be an awesome season.
Week Five Preview
CU has a bye this week. While a bye can prove to be a momentum killer, this bye comes at a perfect time for CU to get healthy and begin to turn its sites on Arizona (Folsom Field, 10/5, 2:30 PM kickoff). This game should be a sellout. CU Football is legit, Family weekend and a Fall Saturday in Boulder. A combination of Family weekend, CU football being legit and a perfect Fall afternoon at Folsom will make for the perfect combination. October 5th can’t come soon enough. More on the Arizona game in next Friday’s update. Two words Kahlil Tate.
For the first time in CU history, the Buffs found themselves playing in back to back overtime games. Unlike the sheer joy of beating NE in OT last week, Buff Nation came crashing back to reality with the OT loss to the Falcons. The fact that this was a trap game (see my email from last week), and the CU coaching staff said it wasn’t, reminds me of the famous 1897 editorial “Is There a Santa Claus”. Yes, Coach Tucker, this is a trap game, and it certainly showed for the first three quarters of play. The fact that Montez, after 35 games played as a Buff (yes, he has been here forever) and holder of 34 school records (not sure if that is a positive or negative for CU football), STILL can’t effectively demonstrate leadership qualities for four quarters reminds me of this scene from City Slickers. He doesn’t get it, and perhaps will never get it. Ugh!
Week Four Preview
CU @ Arizona State
Week four represents Buff Nation’s first opportunity to see how the Buffaloes will respond to adversity under coach Tucker. Still licking their wounds from an embarrassing Air Force loss, CU travels to Tempe, AZ (a place they have never won) to take on the #24 ASU Sun Devils (who beat #18 Michigan State last week). The Buffs are a 7+ point underdog, yet I’m feeling pretty good about CU’s chances. The Buffs have shown their resiliency in come from behind wins against NE and a near win against Air Force. ASU looks to be overrated (just like NE was) and are averaging a paltry 19.7 pts/ game (CU is averaging 36.3).
For a decade, CU has been in pursuit of that pivot game which turned the program around. In 2016, we believed it was the win at OR. While that spurred on the season, it wasn’t sustainable. If we win this Saturday at ASU, I would argue that is not the pivot game either, but perhaps the loss to Air Force was. It seems Tucker is instilling a sense of resiliency in these Buffs (coming up short against Air Force aside) which we haven’t seen in a long time. If CU is to win Saturday night (8PM kick off), they will need to play four quarters (something they haven’t done through the first three games of the season). CU is not good enough to show up for half a game and expect to win. Hopefully the loss to Air Force has proven that. A CU victory puts the season back on track. If CU loses, well, if CU loses, it will be a long two weeks (CU has a bye before playing AZ on 10/5 at Folsom), before Buff Nation has the opportunity for some redemption. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait that long.
