Ok, so I hope all of you used the bye week to cool the engines a bit and get mentally ready for the deep dive into the rest of this season. Some of you probably just rolled your eyes wondering why in the world you would spend time thinking about CU when CU isn’t even playing.
Yet, for those mighty few (bound to grow throughout this season and seasons to come), you know what is at stake. Pride, relevance, respect, truth (well, maybe not truth) and honor. Yes, honor is at stake. These are our Colorado Buffaloes win or lose, so let’s get on with the winning, the bowl games and the rankings already. It’s been way too long. It all starts (continues) tomorrow.
Week Six Preview
CU (3-1) vs Arizona (3-1)
So with that said, who’s ready? Who’s ready to take over sole possession of the Pac-12 South standings? In a match-up of the two Pac-12 South leaders (yes, you read that correct), CU takes on the Wildcats of Arizona this Saturday at 2:40 pm at Folsom Field. Never have I seen a game where arguably the best two players on each team were game day decisions. For Arizona, their highly talented QB Kahlil Tate and running back JJ Taylor did not play last week in AZ’s impressive win over UCLA. On the Buff side of the ball, Laviska Shenault and Mustafa Johnson remain questionable.
This game is going to be high scoring. CU has proven that when their offense is clicking, it’s as good as anyone in the Pac-12. Yet, as stated, prior, CU’s defense is giving up too many points to have sustained success. Regardless which QB AZ puts on the field (their back-up QB Grant Gunnell played well last week), AZ will be able to drive the ball on CU. That said, CU has had two weeks to prepare for AZ. It will be interesting to see how Coach Tucker used that time, and what adjustments this coaching staff make to shore up the Buff defense. CU also has the advantage playing at home in what should prove to be a sell-out crowd (CU leads the Pac 12 in home attendance as a % of capacity with 102% this season).
Forecast calls sunny skies and mid-60’s. A perfect Fall day in the perfect town. No place better to be than at Folsom. CU wins this one in a relatively close, high-scoring affair, and goes 4-1 on the season. Hope the fans don’t feel compelled to rush the field. That would be weird. There’ll be time enough for that later this season.
To put CU’s road victory over (then) #24 Arizona State last Saturday night into perspective, one must go all the way back to 2002. If a program is bad for long enough (like CU), ugly records begin to pile up on each other. When CU is on the rebound (like CU is), those records begin to be dug up for analysis (yours truly) to experience a bit of vindication.
Since CU’s 2002 victory over UCLA, the Buffs have gone 0-36 against ranked teams on the road. That streak ended last Saturday. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, CU has a road record of 7-30 against Pac-12 teams. Three of those wins came in the anomaly 2016 season. While past performance isn’t indicative of future results (let’s pray that’s true), statistics would say CU had a 14% (7/30) chance of winning on the road and a 3% (1/37) chance if that team was ranked. NOW, add in CU playing without its top Offensive weapon (Laviska Shenault went down early) and Mustafa Johnson, one of their top defensive players and the odds of winning continue to plummet.
Yet, CU continued to fight (shoulder to shoulder). Series after series, the offense found a way to score. QB1 Montez played out of his mind and his all white jersey stayed that way (offensive line also played out of its mind – against the #2 ranked defense in the country nonetheless)., and when they had to the Defense got the stop they needed and special teams made the kick they needed. I would like to think it’s because in my last update where I asked for four quarters of play and use the Air Force defeat as a launching pad into Pac-12 play to turn this program around. Coach Tucker did not call me and tell me he hears me, but perhaps he was busy. Either way, done and done.
CU looks different, they play different, they are different under Coach Tucker. One “pump the brakes” comment I would make though is that the Buff defense isn’t very good. The Buffs are giving up an average of 31 points a game. For things to stay the same (i.e. turning this program around), things are going to have to change (defense needs to improve). That said, I like our chances and it’s going to be an awesome season.
Week Five Preview
CU has a bye this week. While a bye can prove to be a momentum killer, this bye comes at a perfect time for CU to get healthy and begin to turn its sites on Arizona (Folsom Field, 10/5, 2:30 PM kickoff). This game should be a sellout. CU Football is legit, Family weekend and a Fall Saturday in Boulder. A combination of Family weekend, CU football being legit and a perfect Fall afternoon at Folsom will make for the perfect combination. October 5th can’t come soon enough. More on the Arizona game in next Friday’s update. Two words Kahlil Tate.
For the first time in CU history, the Buffs found themselves playing in back to back overtime games. Unlike the sheer joy of beating NE in OT last week, Buff Nation came crashing back to reality with the OT loss to the Falcons. The fact that this was a trap game (see my email from last week), and the CU coaching staff said it wasn’t, reminds me of the famous 1897 editorial “Is There a Santa Claus”. Yes, Coach Tucker, this is a trap game, and it certainly showed for the first three quarters of play. The fact that Montez, after 35 games played as a Buff (yes, he has been here forever) and holder of 34 school records (not sure if that is a positive or negative for CU football), STILL can’t effectively demonstrate leadership qualities for four quarters reminds me of this scene from City Slickers. He doesn’t get it, and perhaps will never get it. Ugh!
Week Four Preview
CU @ Arizona State
Week four represents Buff Nation’s first opportunity to see how the Buffaloes will respond to adversity under coach Tucker. Still licking their wounds from an embarrassing Air Force loss, CU travels to Tempe, AZ (a place they have never won) to take on the #24 ASU Sun Devils (who beat #18 Michigan State last week). The Buffs are a 7+ point underdog, yet I’m feeling pretty good about CU’s chances. The Buffs have shown their resiliency in come from behind wins against NE and a near win against Air Force. ASU looks to be overrated (just like NE was) and are averaging a paltry 19.7 pts/ game (CU is averaging 36.3).
For a decade, CU has been in pursuit of that pivot game which turned the program around. In 2016, we believed it was the win at OR. While that spurred on the season, it wasn’t sustainable. If we win this Saturday at ASU, I would argue that is not the pivot game either, but perhaps the loss to Air Force was. It seems Tucker is instilling a sense of resiliency in these Buffs (coming up short against Air Force aside) which we haven’t seen in a long time. If CU is to win Saturday night (8PM kick off), they will need to play four quarters (something they haven’t done through the first three games of the season). CU is not good enough to show up for half a game and expect to win. Hopefully the loss to Air Force has proven that. A CU victory puts the season back on track. If CU loses, well, if CU loses, it will be a long two weeks (CU has a bye before playing AZ on 10/5 at Folsom), before Buff Nation has the opportunity for some redemption. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait that long.
In a game right out of a Charlie Dickens novel, it was the best of times and it was the worst of times for Buff nation. In a game of two halves, the Buffs fortunately saved the best for last. With the “Go Big Red” Cornhuskers leading 0-17 at half, there was a quiet sense of despair. This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. Would we ever be relevant again? Fortunately for Buff Nation, while sorrows were drowned in the field house, tailgates and living rooms of Buff faithful, Coach Tucker and staff once again crafted a second half game plan which would save the day.
In a game which became an instant classic in this storied rivalry, CU went scoreless in its first seven drives and then finished the game scoring on its last six (excluding the intentional kneel to end regulation). Even though we never led until OT, once CU scored it’s first points deep into the third quarter, there was a budding sense that we were going to win. Witnessing the longest play from scrimmage in CU history (94-yard flea-flicker to KD Nixon) certainly helped the cause. Suddenly, NE couldn’t stop CU. In the second half NE got out-coached, out-muscled and out-hustled (I’m not sure all those need to be hyphenated, but hopefully you get the point). CU wanted it more. In a blink of an eye (literally), the game was over. A missed field goal in OT ushered in the halcyon days once again for Buff Nation as fans rushed the field with reckless abandon (beat NE = rush field). A 7-hour drive back to Lincoln for the sea of red suddenly got a lot longer. O Big Red, where art thy stink now?
Week Three Preview
CU vs Air Force (Folsom 11 AM)
While Coach Tucker denies it (which of course every coach would), Air Force represents a trap game. Coming off two emotional rivalry wins, one week away from Pac-12 play, and a offensive scheme that none of these players have faced, a talented and loose Air Force squad comes to town with zero to lose. Don’t be surprised if the Buffs are down early against the Air Force Falcons. The triple-option is rarely seen (only Army, Air Force, Navy and GA Tech run it), is difficult to play against (it calls for extreme patience and discipline on the defense), and it’s even more difficult to practice against (pretty tough to get Scout team to give a good look for the starting defense).
If CU wins this game, they should be ranked in the top 25. More on that next week if it that comes about. It’s great to see CU playing Air Force once again after a 45-year hiatus. I would love to see CU rotate out CSU, Wyoming and Air Force every third year. This game will be close in the first half. CU will begin to pull away in the second half and win by double digits to go 3-0 on the season and set their sites Pac-12 play. Tomorrow calls for perfect weather, in the perfect venue in the best city in the world. These are indeed the best of times. Dickens would be proud.
As predicted CU thrashed CSU by three touchdowns (see below if you didn’t read last weeks Buff Nation season predictions). Perhaps thrash is too dramatic a word, but CSU was never going to win. The Rams always play hard against their big brother, therefore it’s difficult to tell how good CU is after the Rocky Mtn Showdown (one of the reasons I hate opening against CSU).
For the Buff doubters, the Rams seemed to score at will during the first half. Very concerning given every other team we play this season is better than the Rams. For the Buff believers, 1-0 is 1-0 and the half-time adjustments on both sides of the ball were effective. ALWAYS a good sign. Anyway, with the Rams in our rear-view mirror, we move on…
Week Two Preview
Nebraska is in town. It’s true that a win is a win, but some wins resonate more than others. I remember rushing the field in ’86 after beating #3 Nebraska. In 2001, in the best game I’ve ever witnessed at Folsom, CU destroyed #2 NE 62-36 (they should loop those highlights on the big screen during every stoppage of play tomorrow), and in one of the best football road-trips I have ever taken (Texas A&M next year), watching CU come from behind to beat NE in Lincoln last season still makes me smile, and in Pavlov dog fashion, makes me want to crack open a Coors Light. All games matter. Nebraska games just matter most.
NE comes in ranked #25 in the country. They are overrated. CU is ranked #67. They are under-rated. NE is under pressure to live up to the hype. CU is under pressure to create hype. Both programs feel they have the coach which can turn their respective programs around. Something has to give. If CU can control the line of scrimmage on defense and force NE QB Martinez to pass from the pocket, CU will win. CU will put points on NE’s black shirts (BTW, are they still allowed to still call themselves that even though they gave up over 30 points per game last year and 35 to #121 South Alabama last week?). The weak link right now for the Buffaloes is their defense. Crack that nut and we will be bowling for sure. If only we had an awesome top-shelf former Defensive Coordinator as our head coach. Oh, wait. Perfect. CU figures it out on defense and continues to roll on offense. CU wins this one by 10.
