To put CU’s road victory over (then) #24 Arizona State last Saturday night into perspective, one must go all the way back to 2002. If a program is bad for long enough (like CU), ugly records begin to pile up on each other. When CU is on the rebound (like CU is), those records begin to be dug up for analysis (yours truly) to experience a bit of vindication.
Since CU’s 2002 victory over UCLA, the Buffs have gone 0-36 against ranked teams on the road. That streak ended last Saturday. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, CU has a road record of 7-30 against Pac-12 teams. Three of those wins came in the anomaly 2016 season. While past performance isn’t indicative of future results (let’s pray that’s true), statistics would say CU had a 14% (7/30) chance of winning on the road and a 3% (1/37) chance if that team was ranked. NOW, add in CU playing without its top Offensive weapon (Laviska Shenault went down early) and Mustafa Johnson, one of their top defensive players and the odds of winning continue to plummet.
Yet, CU continued to fight (shoulder to shoulder). Series after series, the offense found a way to score. QB1 Montez played out of his mind and his all white jersey stayed that way (offensive line also played out of its mind – against the #2 ranked defense in the country nonetheless)., and when they had to the Defense got the stop they needed and special teams made the kick they needed. I would like to think it’s because in my last update where I asked for four quarters of play and use the Air Force defeat as a launching pad into Pac-12 play to turn this program around. Coach Tucker did not call me and tell me he hears me, but perhaps he was busy. Either way, done and done.
CU looks different, they play different, they are different under Coach Tucker. One “pump the brakes” comment I would make though is that the Buff defense isn’t very good. The Buffs are giving up an average of 31 points a game. For things to stay the same (i.e. turning this program around), things are going to have to change (defense needs to improve). That said, I like our chances and it’s going to be an awesome season.
Week Five Preview
CU has a bye this week. While a bye can prove to be a momentum killer, this bye comes at a perfect time for CU to get healthy and begin to turn its sites on Arizona (Folsom Field, 10/5, 2:30 PM kickoff). This game should be a sellout. CU Football is legit, Family weekend and a Fall Saturday in Boulder. A combination of Family weekend, CU football being legit and a perfect Fall afternoon at Folsom will make for the perfect combination. October 5th can’t come soon enough. More on the Arizona game in next Friday’s update. Two words Kahlil Tate.
For the first time in CU history, the Buffs found themselves playing in back to back overtime games. Unlike the sheer joy of beating NE in OT last week, Buff Nation came crashing back to reality with the OT loss to the Falcons. The fact that this was a trap game (see my email from last week), and the CU coaching staff said it wasn’t, reminds me of the famous 1897 editorial “Is There a Santa Claus”. Yes, Coach Tucker, this is a trap game, and it certainly showed for the first three quarters of play. The fact that Montez, after 35 games played as a Buff (yes, he has been here forever) and holder of 34 school records (not sure if that is a positive or negative for CU football), STILL can’t effectively demonstrate leadership qualities for four quarters reminds me of this scene from City Slickers. He doesn’t get it, and perhaps will never get it. Ugh!
Week Four Preview
CU @ Arizona State
Week four represents Buff Nation’s first opportunity to see how the Buffaloes will respond to adversity under coach Tucker. Still licking their wounds from an embarrassing Air Force loss, CU travels to Tempe, AZ (a place they have never won) to take on the #24 ASU Sun Devils (who beat #18 Michigan State last week). The Buffs are a 7+ point underdog, yet I’m feeling pretty good about CU’s chances. The Buffs have shown their resiliency in come from behind wins against NE and a near win against Air Force. ASU looks to be overrated (just like NE was) and are averaging a paltry 19.7 pts/ game (CU is averaging 36.3).
For a decade, CU has been in pursuit of that pivot game which turned the program around. In 2016, we believed it was the win at OR. While that spurred on the season, it wasn’t sustainable. If we win this Saturday at ASU, I would argue that is not the pivot game either, but perhaps the loss to Air Force was. It seems Tucker is instilling a sense of resiliency in these Buffs (coming up short against Air Force aside) which we haven’t seen in a long time. If CU is to win Saturday night (8PM kick off), they will need to play four quarters (something they haven’t done through the first three games of the season). CU is not good enough to show up for half a game and expect to win. Hopefully the loss to Air Force has proven that. A CU victory puts the season back on track. If CU loses, well, if CU loses, it will be a long two weeks (CU has a bye before playing AZ on 10/5 at Folsom), before Buff Nation has the opportunity for some redemption. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait that long.
In a game right out of a Charlie Dickens novel, it was the best of times and it was the worst of times for Buff nation. In a game of two halves, the Buffs fortunately saved the best for last. With the “Go Big Red” Cornhuskers leading 0-17 at half, there was a quiet sense of despair. This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. Would we ever be relevant again? Fortunately for Buff Nation, while sorrows were drowned in the field house, tailgates and living rooms of Buff faithful, Coach Tucker and staff once again crafted a second half game plan which would save the day.
In a game which became an instant classic in this storied rivalry, CU went scoreless in its first seven drives and then finished the game scoring on its last six (excluding the intentional kneel to end regulation). Even though we never led until OT, once CU scored it’s first points deep into the third quarter, there was a budding sense that we were going to win. Witnessing the longest play from scrimmage in CU history (94-yard flea-flicker to KD Nixon) certainly helped the cause. Suddenly, NE couldn’t stop CU. In the second half NE got out-coached, out-muscled and out-hustled (I’m not sure all those need to be hyphenated, but hopefully you get the point). CU wanted it more. In a blink of an eye (literally), the game was over. A missed field goal in OT ushered in the halcyon days once again for Buff Nation as fans rushed the field with reckless abandon (beat NE = rush field). A 7-hour drive back to Lincoln for the sea of red suddenly got a lot longer. O Big Red, where art thy stink now?
Week Three Preview
CU vs Air Force (Folsom 11 AM)
While Coach Tucker denies it (which of course every coach would), Air Force represents a trap game. Coming off two emotional rivalry wins, one week away from Pac-12 play, and a offensive scheme that none of these players have faced, a talented and loose Air Force squad comes to town with zero to lose. Don’t be surprised if the Buffs are down early against the Air Force Falcons. The triple-option is rarely seen (only Army, Air Force, Navy and GA Tech run it), is difficult to play against (it calls for extreme patience and discipline on the defense), and it’s even more difficult to practice against (pretty tough to get Scout team to give a good look for the starting defense).
If CU wins this game, they should be ranked in the top 25. More on that next week if it that comes about. It’s great to see CU playing Air Force once again after a 45-year hiatus. I would love to see CU rotate out CSU, Wyoming and Air Force every third year. This game will be close in the first half. CU will begin to pull away in the second half and win by double digits to go 3-0 on the season and set their sites Pac-12 play. Tomorrow calls for perfect weather, in the perfect venue in the best city in the world. These are indeed the best of times. Dickens would be proud.
As predicted CU thrashed CSU by three touchdowns (see below if you didn’t read last weeks Buff Nation season predictions). Perhaps thrash is too dramatic a word, but CSU was never going to win. The Rams always play hard against their big brother, therefore it’s difficult to tell how good CU is after the Rocky Mtn Showdown (one of the reasons I hate opening against CSU).
For the Buff doubters, the Rams seemed to score at will during the first half. Very concerning given every other team we play this season is better than the Rams. For the Buff believers, 1-0 is 1-0 and the half-time adjustments on both sides of the ball were effective. ALWAYS a good sign. Anyway, with the Rams in our rear-view mirror, we move on…
Week Two Preview
Nebraska is in town. It’s true that a win is a win, but some wins resonate more than others. I remember rushing the field in ’86 after beating #3 Nebraska. In 2001, in the best game I’ve ever witnessed at Folsom, CU destroyed #2 NE 62-36 (they should loop those highlights on the big screen during every stoppage of play tomorrow), and in one of the best football road-trips I have ever taken (Texas A&M next year), watching CU come from behind to beat NE in Lincoln last season still makes me smile, and in Pavlov dog fashion, makes me want to crack open a Coors Light. All games matter. Nebraska games just matter most.
NE comes in ranked #25 in the country. They are overrated. CU is ranked #67. They are under-rated. NE is under pressure to live up to the hype. CU is under pressure to create hype. Both programs feel they have the coach which can turn their respective programs around. Something has to give. If CU can control the line of scrimmage on defense and force NE QB Martinez to pass from the pocket, CU will win. CU will put points on NE’s black shirts (BTW, are they still allowed to still call themselves that even though they gave up over 30 points per game last year and 35 to #121 South Alabama last week?). The weak link right now for the Buffaloes is their defense. Crack that nut and we will be bowling for sure. If only we had an awesome top-shelf former Defensive Coordinator as our head coach. Oh, wait. Perfect. CU figures it out on defense and continues to roll on offense. CU wins this one by 10.
It is with tremendous joy and celebration that I welcome you back to another season of CU Football. This is the 4th annual Buff Nation Football preview and analysis. If you are receiving this email, you were either on the distribution list last season, or I added you based on your known interest in Buff football. Feel free to ping me anytime to be removed. (Briefer) weekly updates to follow.
2019 Season Preview (game predictions below):
Feeling a little bit like Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day, the Buffs once again enter the season with a bitter taste from season prior and questions abound. The Buffs are the vogue (well deserved?) pick to finish at the bottom of the Pac-12 South. Although loaded with talent at skill positions, no one really wants to step out and say CU is going to be good. After over a decade of brow beating and broken hearts, it’s easier to just stay on the sidelines and take a wait and see approach. Not going to happen in this preview though. The Buffs are going to shock the nation and themselves. Game predictions below. Go Buffs!
Friday August 30, 2019, Colorado State (@ Mile High)
The Mel Tucker era kicks off in style as CU thrashes CSU by more than three touchdowns. CSU simply doesn’t have anyone on their squad that can keep up with Laviska “so good to have you back” Shenault. Steven “remember not to throw it to the other team” Montez puts on a passing clinic and Tucker has the Buffs playing with a high level of energy early. CU 1-0
September 7, Nebraska (Folsom)
It doesn’t get better than this. Hate is good. In a throw-back Big-8 clash of the titan’s rivalry game, the Cornhuskers return to Folsom followed by their Husker Nation faithful (looking for any excuse to visit paradise). Nebraska fans are some of the most gracious hosts in the country and we should return the favor – but not on the football field. CU will prevail by the skin of their teeth (ala last year) and have Boulder buzzing with wonder of the possibilities of the 2019 season. CU 2-0
September 14, Air Force (Folsom)
A classic trap game (coming on the heels of playing emotionally charged games against rivals CSU and NE, and just before Pac-12 play), CU tees off against Air Force for the first time in 45 years. The true testament of Tucker’s coaching ability will be on display here as CU refuses to come out flat and takes care of business against the deceptively respectable Falcons team. CU 3-0
September 21, @ Arizona State
Pac-12 play begins, and ASU is as good a first game as Buff Nation could hope. ASU is over-rated and should be vulnerable to an already proven Buff team. If CU is healthy coming into this game (CU is thin across the board except at the receiver position), CU will pull off a big victory in Tempe. CU 4-0
October 5 Arizona (Folsom)
This is one of the most interesting games of the season. Two years ago, CU awoke the sleeping giant by knocking out AZ QB1 and introducing AZ QB2 Khalil Tate to the world. Tate RUSHED for 327 yards that night. Last year Tate PASSED for 350 yards. CU has been at Tate’s mercy. This is the game where Tucker must prove that CU has improved enough to shut elite players down. In front of a Folsom Frenzy crowd, CU does exactly that, keeping Tate to modest numbers and securing the win. CU 5-0 (yup 5-0!).
Friday October 11, @ Oregon
De-ja vu all over again? CU was 5-0 last year and then proceeded to rattle off 7 straight loses. We won’t pick that scab, but winning the first five games of the 2019 season will feel shockingly queasy. There are not bowl berths given out for five wins. Not until #6 win arrives can Buff Nation breath a collective sign of relief. Unfortunately, #6 won’t happen this week (or next for that matter). OR is good and they have one of the best QBs (Justin Herbert) in the nation. CU loses its first game of the year. CU 5-1
Saturday, October 19 @ Washington State
CU absorbs it’s second loss of the season at the hands of a good Washington State Cougars team. CU is much improved, but not yet ready to take the next step of winning these types of games on the road (next year oh please, oh please). CU is still in pole position to accomplish their season goals (which I assume includes getting to a bowl game already). CU 5-2
Friday, October 25, USC (Folsom)
The game of the season. The victory CU points to years to come which marked the turn of the program. Nationally televised game elusive bowl eligibility on the line, and who comes into town but the spoiled, me-first USC Trojans. Coach Tucker delivers a pre-game speech to the team along the lines of “We must hang together, or certainly we will all hang separately.” CU wins in a close one, and illustrates that in football, teams will over individuals. Players have bought into what Tucker is selling. Get your bowling shoes ready, because CU just punched its ticket for the post season. CU 6-2
Saturday, November 2, @ UCLA
UCLA plays a bit soft. Under Chip Kelly they are also a bit gimmicky. Both play into the hands of a Buff defense that should be schooled by now (nine weeks into the season) on how to do your job. Add in a CU offense which could quite possibly be leading the Pac-12 in total yards, and CU wins on the road at the Rose Bowl. CU 7-2
Saturday, November 9, Stanford (Folsom)
While CU is rolling, and has exceeded everyone’s expectations, the toughest part of the schedule is yet to come and CU is vulnerable. The next three weeks are going to be a slog. A sound Stanford Cardinal team comes into Folsom and secures a relatively easy and somewhat disappointing victory. Coach Tucker can’t work miracles in a single season, and a thin Buff squad coming into the season is beginning to show its wears. Unless some second-string D-line and O-line help carry the load, Buff Nation is going to have to grin and bear the last three weeks of the season before bowl season. CU 7-3
Saturday, November 23, Washington (Folsom)
Even with an extra week of rest, CU doesn’t have the firepower to beat the Huskies. CU plays better than they did against Stanford, but still comes up short. No one is too surprised, and Buff Nation remains relatively happy with the body of work the season has produced (beggars can’t be choosy). CU 7-4
Saturday, November 30, @Utah
Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 South not to have won the division since inception. They always tend to be ranked in the top 25, yet somehow find a game or two to stub their toe on. Unfortunately, I don’t think they stub their toe here. In a well fought game which, ironically breathes some fresh life back into the Buffs heading into their bowl preparation, Utah defeats CU in this last regular season game. CU 7-5
2019 Season Summary
In truth, CU can be anywhere from 4-8 to 8-4. The key goal is to secure a bowl berth. Anything less will be disappointment – even given the harder schedule and new coaching staff. Either way, CU’s home schedule is one of the most attractive in the country. There overall schedule is one of the most difficult in the country. Buff Nation has been waiting a long time for some redemption (and respect). That road begins in less than six hours when CU takes on CSU at Mile High. Hope to CU there (and every home game this season). Who’s got it better than us? Nobody!
