The hardest part of real estate investing is securing that first asset which improves the status quo. The second hardest part of real estate investing is managing that asset through TLC to the point where it becomes part of future solutions and not present problems.
The CU Buffs have the same issue. Over the past decade CU has struggle to win on a consistent basis, and in large part its been due to their inability to secure that first asset – a highly ranked recruiting class, and then parlay that class into consecutive highly ranked recruiting classes. As we know, players make plays, players win games, and in order for us to have a great team, we need great players.
This past Wednesday, Coach Tucker and the Buffs secured that first asset. One small step for the Buffs, one giant leap for Buff Nation. This recruiting class is the highest ranked (#34) CU has had in over a decade. A recruiting class chalk full of athletes who can help this team now, but more importantly, help this team continue to grow in a manner which the players become part of the solution, rather than the problem (no bowl for you). This class can help “make CU great again” (ugh, did I just say that).
This past season CU beat ASU, who in turn beat OR, who in turn won the Pac-12 title. Fuzzy math? Perhaps. Point is, CU isn’t THAT far away from being a champion. It just feels like that sometimes (all the time). Buff Nation has been conditioned like Pavlov’s dogs. Once Pac-12 play starts, we know it’s not going to end well, and rather than salivate, our stomachs begin to turn and headaches begin to creep in.
With each losing season we rack our brains trying to rationalize why it has to be the Buffs that suck. Why can’t it be some other team? To quote the Boss, perhaps Buff Nation is like a dog that’s been beat too much ‘til you spend half your life just to cover it up. Well, those days are over. With this class, this coach and all that CU already had to offer (tradition, facilities, Boulder), the trajectory for the Buffs is awesome. Buy long.
So secure your season tickets (while you still can), buckle your chin strap, and prepare to give thanks, because the quality of life(style) in Boulder just got that much better (if that is even possible – which it is – at least when it comes to football).
Final Thought
I hope you all have an awesome holiday season. It’s been a pleasure writing these Buff Nation emails for you. I love all the responses and comments. We are at the end of the beginning in this program turnaround. November wins over Stanford and Washington have proven that. Perhaps not next year (although we will bowl for sure), but in a blink of an eye (after over a decade of drought), we will arrive in the land of milk and honey and forever remember our journey to get here and won’t ever let go.
Happy Friday! I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving.
Week Thirteen Review
CU 20, Washington 14
Boom! Don’t change your socks, don’t change your shirt, don’t shave. Whatever winning streak superstition you hold on to out of belief or recreation, do it. The Buffs are rolling. Last Saturday’s win over Washington marked the fifth largest upset (CU was a 14.5-point underdog) in school history. In an age where Buff Nation has little to cheer about (outside of our annual beat down of NE (gotta love it)), the last two game Colorado have given Buff Nation hope (ah, there is that word again).
This win was big. For context the Huskies WON the Pac-12 last season and have pummeled the buffs the last NINE TIMES by a combined score of 340 to 128 (an average of 24 point (rounding up). While winning is certainly better than losing (reference link from two weeks ago for clip), it was the way CU won which instills confidence that this thing (return to dominance) is happening. From kickoff to victory formation, CU won with a stout defense, hard nose running game and disciplined special teams (including arguably the best punt you will ever see in college football)…and yes, Steven Montez, he of late-night Fortnight, showed up for the second game in a row and played like a legit Pac-12 QB. He gave Buff Nation all he had in the victory and kudos to him for doing so. Yet, at the end of the day, it was the defense that reigned supreme.
Win and CU goes bowling. Lose, and the Buffs go home for the season to ponder what could have been (missed PAT vs Air Force, missed fumble recovery vs USC). Either way, the Buffs are back and on a trajectory any fan wants to see this time of year. The Buffs are playing their best ball of the season. A win at Utah tomorrow would represent the largest pre-game point spread win in CU history (the Buffs are a 28+ underdog).
Utah is legit across the board. They have several seniors on defense who will be nominated for Pac-12 honors. They also have the best QB / WR tandem in the conference and one of the best running backs. CU will have to play out of their minds to keep this game close. Inclement weather should help level the playing field. A win at Utah tomorrow would pop the top on this program. I don’t see that happening, but Tucker has this team dialed in and if CU holds Utah to similar 3rd down stats (see below) as they did Washington…oh boy oh boy oh boy…it will be an early Christmas for Buff Nation.
Final Thought
One stat from the Washington game which I had calculate by hand as I was in disbelief when I read it, the Huskies ran 17 plays on third down for a total of a negative 30 yards. Good things happen when that happens.
CU had its second and final bye of the season. It was hopefully a chance for Laviska Shenault and others to heal up for the final two games of the season.
Week Thirteen Preview
CU (4-6) vs Washington (6-4) – Saturday 8PM, Folsom Field (ESPN)
As disappointing as this season has been, it’s sad to see the season come to an end. Tomorrow evening the Buffs take on the Washington Huskies for their last home game of 2019 season. For 16 seniors this will be the last time they play on Folsom field, and probably forever. One of those Seniors is QB1 Montez whom I have often accused of being late-night Fortnight Montez rather than QB1 Montez. It’s been a long and difficult run with this guy. That said, Montez holds 35 school records and needs 300 yards passing and 1 td pass to hold those two records as well.
As infuriating as Montez has been (sometimes it feels like this is our penance), Montez STILL has one more chance to hook up Buff Nation, and for all of us to forever speak fondly of how it was in his twilight moments when he shined the brightest. A victory on Saturday would wash away all the tears. A win Saturday would usher in a new era of Buffs football. A victory Saturday would be a fitting ending to the career of a QB who holds all the records outside of the ones that matter.
Final Thought
CU currently has the 33rd rank recruiting class in the nation (and rising). This is the highest ranking in over a decade (Tucker effect). Recruiting is the life blood of any college football program. Players make plays. Players win games. Recruits want cool uniforms (check), cool facilities (check), cool college atmosphere (check), the opportunity to play (check) and a winning program so they can brag to their friends (in process). A win against the reigning Pac-12 champion Huskies on national television in front of a frenzy crowd would make a clear statement that CU is on the rise and as a recruit you can be part of something bigger than yourself. Something that will shock the world and you can be an architect in the build. Something you can tell your grandchildren about how you were a part of CU’s emergence as a football powerhouse. Winning Saturday would have a high return on victory for CU and it’s recruiting efforts.
Final Thought #2
Saturday will be Laviska Shenault’s last game as a CU Buff. While only a junior, Laviska will declare for the NFL draft. See him one last time this Saturday before you begin seeing him on Sundays.
On another epic Saturday at Folsom (no place better), the faithful Buff Nation turned out in masses (CU leads the Pac-12 in attendance with an 101% capacity average), to watch the Buffs continue to exercise the demons associated with turning a program around. CU’s defense seemingly came out of nowhere to pitch a shutout, well not really a shut out, but it certainly felt like it, making Stanford look pedestrian. In the end it was an instant CU iconic football moment when Shenault literally willed his was to a had to have it fourth and 1, to put the Buffs in field goal range to win the game (see below). The win breathed fresh air into this program. Everyone knows it. Everyone feels it. Winning is better than losing (excuse the language).
Week Twelve Preview
CU Bye
CU has a welcomed bye this week. A chance to get some key players healed up as we head into our final home game of the season next week Saturday 11/23 against Washington. Everything is still on the tables for the Buffs. Here’s to hoping we beat Washington, but more on that in next Friday’s report. For now…winning is indeed better than losing. Especially when you have a bye.
Final Thought
During last Saturday’s game, Tucker had over 80 recruits in town. The following day, two of them (one a four star) committed to join the CU program in the Fall. Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football. Players make plays. Players win game. Tucker may not have the Win / Lose record we were hoping for this season, but he is winning on the recruiting trail, and that may actually be more important than bowling this year. Our current trajectory for this program is more important than our current state.
Hope. It doesn’t make for a good business strategy, but it does serve as one of life’s basic tenants. A prominent theme in our world’s three major religions (Christianity, Judaism, Islam), hope is also a requirement for Buff nation (some consider college football a fourth religion). As CU’s seasons holds in the balance, and seemingly slips through our fingers every weekend, the outlook for the Buffs (hopefully) is bright.
In news that shocked the College football world this week, the #1 prospect (Antonio Alfano) in the Nation (yup, nation), is transferring from Alabama to CU. Yes, our CU Buffs are getting a 5-star wrecking ball of a player to boost our defensive line and program. The street credit this news bring to the program should be exponential. While football is the ultimate team sport and one player doesn’t a program make (exhibit A – Laviska Shenault), the news should open up the doors to some high-quality recruits looking to join forces with Alfano and the Buffs. This was never a one-year turn-around effort, but we are directionally correct (see final thought at bottom).
Oh yeah, in other news CU lost to UCLA last week. CU quickly sprinted out to a 0-17 hole like seemingly only the Buffs can do, and worked the rest of the night to climb out. A couple missed field goals was damaging, and CU never looked in sync. A missed opportunity that never really got off the ground. Did I mention the nation’s #1 recruit is transferring to CU?
Week Eleven Preview
CU (3-6) vs. Stanford (4-4) – Folsom Field, 1:10 PM Kickoff
Stanford. This a game CU can and should win. Perhaps a slight upset if they do, but certainly nothing to rush the field about (ah, remember Nebraska? That was awesome.). Stanford is a mediocre Pac-12 team. CU should be able to outpace the Cardinal (what is a Cardinal anyway?) on offense, dependent on whether QB1 Montez or Fortnite Montez shows up. It would also be good (awesome) to see Laviska Shenault (arguably the biggest tease in CU history) stay healthy for an entire game.
While CU needs to win it’s three remaining games to become bowl eligible (here’s to…wait for it…hoping), ironically a bigger return on victory (ROV) would be increasing the probability that all the top-shelf CU recruits in town for the game decide CU (and Tucker, and Alfano) are the place they want to place their bets.
Final Thought
2020 – CU goes to bowl game.
2021 – CU finishes season ranked in top 25.
2022 – CU wins Pac-12 Title
2023 – CU finish season ranked in Top 10 and in playoff conversation
It was not to be. CU had their chances this past Friday evening in front of a packed “Blackout” Folsom Field crowd. Yet an inability to get critical stops at the end of the game (CU had a ten point lead going into the fourth quarter), recover fumbles (either would of prevented a USC TD), and untimely and dumb penalties led to another heart breaking loss.
While there are no moral victories in the high-stakes Power-5 college football world, there are positive to be had from CU’s Friday night effort. Unlike the blow out losses to OR and WSU, against USC, CU showed some heart. They showed some grit, and thankfully, they should some improvement. The running game showed signs of life (the Buffs are set at RB for the next few years), Montez had his best game in weeks (but not without his brain freeze moments), and the young secondary (KJ Trujillo) held their own for most of the game. Our time will come.
Week Ten Preview
CU (3-5) @ UCLA (3-5)
CU plays on the road at UCLA in the Rose Bowl tomorrow night at 7PM. CU wins this one in a down to the wire game to get that elusive fourth win of the season. Laviska Shenault follows up on his big USC performance with more high-light reel plays to prove the difference maker. Montez also plays a solid game (he knows he is running out of time as a Buff, and certainly doesn’t want to be known as the QB who holds all the records yet held the program back). KD Nixon sneaks in there for a TD as well.
While improved (UCLA just beat a ranked ASU team last weekend), I still think UCLA is soft and can be had. The Bruins will score their points against our thin defense, but the Buffs will fight and keep the game close until the end. CU is due. They are not as bad as their record. Hopefully UCLA is.
Final thought
Until there are fewer games remaining than victories CU needs to secure for a bowl game, the dream isn’t over. CU has four game remaining and needs to win three of them to go bowling.
Well the cat is out of the bag, and everyone in the Pac-12 wants a part of it. CU is not very good, and all schools want their W against the buffs before Tucker rights the ship (it’s going to take a couple years). WSU three-game losing streak was cured by the Buffs in easy fashion. Unlike the OR game where Montez and the Buff played almost a half worth of Pac-12 football, against WSU Montez early on looked like he would rather be playing Fortnite with his Sigma Pi brothers than honoring the privilege to play QB1 for CU. I think Coach Tucker has come to realize that all the shines is not (Buff) gold. Montez may have the records, but he doesn’t have the key to a program turnaround. Lack of talent, injuries, suspect play calling (what was our OC’s job last year) and dumb penalties continue to haunt a once proud CU program.
CU (3-4) vs USC (4-3) -Friday 7 PM, Folsom Field (Black Out)
It doesn’t get easier, but it is at home. The USC Trojans come to town sporting the top receiving corps in the Pac-12. I’m sure there was a lot of salivating going on watching film of how AZ, OR and WSU ate CU’s lunch through the air. No surprise what USC is going to do (one if by land, two if by air). The CU faithful will come into Folsom strong. Dressed in black (black out for National TV) and probably well hydrated given it’s a Friday night, the Colorado Buffaloes will have the home field advantage and perhaps even weather on their side. In order for CU to win, they will once again have to play a near perfect game, and Montez (dammit), has to play his best game of his career (why not now?). A win on Friday and CU is back in the bowl hunt (sko Buffs!). A loss and CU needs to turn its sights to 2020. CU will play tough to start but will ultimately succumb to USC’s. Too many things must break our way in order to secure victory. A season of promise is on the brink of becoming a season disappointment. Here’s to playing old school Buff football beating the Trojans at Folsom. Remember to wear black. Hopefully it’s in honor of CU’s back in black resurgence and not because it’s a funeral.
Final Thought:
If CU loses this game, Montez should not start another game for the remainder of the year. Montez should be benched in favor of QB2, someone who could gain from the playing experience this season in order to help lead the Buffs in 2020.
There really isn’t anything good to say about last week’s blowout loss to Oregon (OR). CU didn’t compete for 60 minutes (they stopped at the 28-minute mark), Montez didn’t come to play (he almost seemed pre-occupied), and CU made stupid mistakes. OR accepted all of it and made CU pay. As I stated last week, our hope rested with Montez and that is always a crapshoot. Depends how he is feeling that day.
That said, OR is playing at a level where we can only aspire to be and won’t be for a couple years. It’s a long way to the top of the Pac-12 South, especially when you are starting at the bottom. If there is any good news to be had from the game, it’s that our young players are getting valuable playing time (at the cost of W’s) and we didn’t have anyone else get hurt (and Shenault made a cameo appearance). Slim pickings I know, but we do what we can.
Week Eight Preview
CU (3-3) @ Washington State (3-3)
Well, unfortunately things don’t get easier with this week’s match up against the Washington State Cougars (WSU). CU travels to Pullman, WA which is a brutal place to play given the weather and talent WSU consistently has on their roster. Even when they are losing (WSU is riding a 3-game losing streak after winning their first three) they are still putting up Pac-12 leading offensive yards. Their air attack is potent and RB Max Borghi (straight out of nearby Pomona high school) is a weapon.
Copy and paste OR game assessment here. CU will give up a lot of points to WSU, but also has the opportunity to score a lot of points. Neither team’s defense is that good. CU’s only hope (wait for it) is Montez (digest; pause; throw up in mouth). If Montez plays lights out with his top shelf receiving core (time for Shenault to take over a game) CU has a chance. If not, well, this game will get ugly in a hurry. Montez has a proven ability to bounce back from bad performances. My guess he plays a solid game, but not good enough. CU loses this one 45-34.
Final Thought
For CU to become bowl eligible, they need to win three more games. The two mostly likely wins are @ UCLA on 11/2 and Stanford home on 11/9. The third win will most likely need to come from either upsetting WSU tomorrow night, or taking down USC at Folsom on 10/25.
With the loss to AZ last Saturday at Folsom Field, comes good news (there always has to be good news right?) and bad news. The good news is we still have over half the football season to go and it seems (repeat, it seems) we have a better football team than we did last year. Directionally correct if you will. Players seem bought in, recruits continue to commit and our coach refuses to whine or place blame. Coach Tucker is owning the fact that it’s all about the W’s. No one cares about the rest of it. That’s refreshing. Must be an SEC thing.
The bad news is with the loss to AZ is going to leave a mark. CU is not going to a bowl this year. Short of pulling off some upsets (tonight would certainly qualify), the remaining schedule doesn’t lend itself to winning three more games (to become bowl eligible). That said, we have seen in the Pac-12 South that any team can beat any team, and why not CU? It just sucks that CU has played itself into a spot where their back is against the wall, when in truth they should be undefeated and ranked in the top 15 in the nation. Instead a blocked extra point against Air Force and dumb penalties (and a dropped TD pass) against AZ, put them at 3-2. The teams just get harder from here, so CU is just going to have to play better (guessing Coach Tucker is using more motivational words than that though).
Week Seven Preview
CU (3-2) @ #13 Oregon (4-1)
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. It doesn’t get easier when CU kicks off against #13 Oregon tonight on the road in Eugene. As much as I would like to predict an upset (CU certainly was motivated after their last defeat (Air Force) and took it out on ASU on the road), CU’s secondary is in tatters, their defense line is so thin that it’s almost translucent, and to top it off, OR boasts one of the best QBs in the nation (Justin Herbert), one of the highest scoring offenses in the Pac-12 and a defense which has suddenly found it legs.
CU’s only hope is that Montez (ugh I hate having to put my only hope in this guy) decides to get his head on straight (why not after 29 straight starts), and plays lights out football. In the end, OR is going to be too much for CU to handle on defense. CU beats the 20-point underdog spread, but loses by double digits. Let’s just hope that they continue to improve with each and every game Tucker coaches. At this point, that is what a true Buff fan is looking for. A win tonight would be huge for this program, but we’ll just put that on the Christmas wish list for now.
Ok, so I hope all of you used the bye week to cool the engines a bit and get mentally ready for the deep dive into the rest of this season. Some of you probably just rolled your eyes wondering why in the world you would spend time thinking about CU when CU isn’t even playing.
Yet, for those mighty few (bound to grow throughout this season and seasons to come), you know what is at stake. Pride, relevance, respect, truth (well, maybe not truth) and honor. Yes, honor is at stake. These are our Colorado Buffaloes win or lose, so let’s get on with the winning, the bowl games and the rankings already. It’s been way too long. It all starts (continues) tomorrow.
Week Six Preview
CU (3-1) vs Arizona (3-1)
So with that said, who’s ready? Who’s ready to take over sole possession of the Pac-12 South standings? In a match-up of the two Pac-12 South leaders (yes, you read that correct), CU takes on the Wildcats of Arizona this Saturday at 2:40 pm at Folsom Field. Never have I seen a game where arguably the best two players on each team were game day decisions. For Arizona, their highly talented QB Kahlil Tate and running back JJ Taylor did not play last week in AZ’s impressive win over UCLA. On the Buff side of the ball, Laviska Shenault and Mustafa Johnson remain questionable.
This game is going to be high scoring. CU has proven that when their offense is clicking, it’s as good as anyone in the Pac-12. Yet, as stated, prior, CU’s defense is giving up too many points to have sustained success. Regardless which QB AZ puts on the field (their back-up QB Grant Gunnell played well last week), AZ will be able to drive the ball on CU. That said, CU has had two weeks to prepare for AZ. It will be interesting to see how Coach Tucker used that time, and what adjustments this coaching staff make to shore up the Buff defense. CU also has the advantage playing at home in what should prove to be a sell-out crowd (CU leads the Pac 12 in home attendance as a % of capacity with 102% this season).
Forecast calls sunny skies and mid-60’s. A perfect Fall day in the perfect town. No place better to be than at Folsom. CU wins this one in a relatively close, high-scoring affair, and goes 4-1 on the season. Hope the fans don’t feel compelled to rush the field. That would be weird. There’ll be time enough for that later this season.
To put CU’s road victory over (then) #24 Arizona State last Saturday night into perspective, one must go all the way back to 2002. If a program is bad for long enough (like CU), ugly records begin to pile up on each other. When CU is on the rebound (like CU is), those records begin to be dug up for analysis (yours truly) to experience a bit of vindication.
Since CU’s 2002 victory over UCLA, the Buffs have gone 0-36 against ranked teams on the road. That streak ended last Saturday. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, CU has a road record of 7-30 against Pac-12 teams. Three of those wins came in the anomaly 2016 season. While past performance isn’t indicative of future results (let’s pray that’s true), statistics would say CU had a 14% (7/30) chance of winning on the road and a 3% (1/37) chance if that team was ranked. NOW, add in CU playing without its top Offensive weapon (Laviska Shenault went down early) and Mustafa Johnson, one of their top defensive players and the odds of winning continue to plummet.
Yet, CU continued to fight (shoulder to shoulder). Series after series, the offense found a way to score. QB1 Montez played out of his mind and his all white jersey stayed that way (offensive line also played out of its mind – against the #2 ranked defense in the country nonetheless)., and when they had to the Defense got the stop they needed and special teams made the kick they needed. I would like to think it’s because in my last update where I asked for four quarters of play and use the Air Force defeat as a launching pad into Pac-12 play to turn this program around. Coach Tucker did not call me and tell me he hears me, but perhaps he was busy. Either way, done and done.
CU looks different, they play different, they are different under Coach Tucker. One “pump the brakes” comment I would make though is that the Buff defense isn’t very good. The Buffs are giving up an average of 31 points a game. For things to stay the same (i.e. turning this program around), things are going to have to change (defense needs to improve). That said, I like our chances and it’s going to be an awesome season.
Week Five Preview
CU has a bye this week. While a bye can prove to be a momentum killer, this bye comes at a perfect time for CU to get healthy and begin to turn its sites on Arizona (Folsom Field, 10/5, 2:30 PM kickoff). This game should be a sellout. CU Football is legit, Family weekend and a Fall Saturday in Boulder. A combination of Family weekend, CU football being legit and a perfect Fall afternoon at Folsom will make for the perfect combination. October 5th can’t come soon enough. More on the Arizona game in next Friday’s update. Two words Kahlil Tate.
For the first time in CU history, the Buffs found themselves playing in back to back overtime games. Unlike the sheer joy of beating NE in OT last week, Buff Nation came crashing back to reality with the OT loss to the Falcons. The fact that this was a trap game (see my email from last week), and the CU coaching staff said it wasn’t, reminds me of the famous 1897 editorial “Is There a Santa Claus”. Yes, Coach Tucker, this is a trap game, and it certainly showed for the first three quarters of play. The fact that Montez, after 35 games played as a Buff (yes, he has been here forever) and holder of 34 school records (not sure if that is a positive or negative for CU football), STILL can’t effectively demonstrate leadership qualities for four quarters reminds me of this scene from City Slickers. He doesn’t get it, and perhaps will never get it. Ugh!
Week Four Preview
CU @ Arizona State
Week four represents Buff Nation’s first opportunity to see how the Buffaloes will respond to adversity under coach Tucker. Still licking their wounds from an embarrassing Air Force loss, CU travels to Tempe, AZ (a place they have never won) to take on the #24 ASU Sun Devils (who beat #18 Michigan State last week). The Buffs are a 7+ point underdog, yet I’m feeling pretty good about CU’s chances. The Buffs have shown their resiliency in come from behind wins against NE and a near win against Air Force. ASU looks to be overrated (just like NE was) and are averaging a paltry 19.7 pts/ game (CU is averaging 36.3).
For a decade, CU has been in pursuit of that pivot game which turned the program around. In 2016, we believed it was the win at OR. While that spurred on the season, it wasn’t sustainable. If we win this Saturday at ASU, I would argue that is not the pivot game either, but perhaps the loss to Air Force was. It seems Tucker is instilling a sense of resiliency in these Buffs (coming up short against Air Force aside) which we haven’t seen in a long time. If CU is to win Saturday night (8PM kick off), they will need to play four quarters (something they haven’t done through the first three games of the season). CU is not good enough to show up for half a game and expect to win. Hopefully the loss to Air Force has proven that. A CU victory puts the season back on track. If CU loses, well, if CU loses, it will be a long two weeks (CU has a bye before playing AZ on 10/5 at Folsom), before Buff Nation has the opportunity for some redemption. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait that long.
In a game right out of a Charlie Dickens novel, it was the best of times and it was the worst of times for Buff nation. In a game of two halves, the Buffs fortunately saved the best for last. With the “Go Big Red” Cornhuskers leading 0-17 at half, there was a quiet sense of despair. This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. Would we ever be relevant again? Fortunately for Buff Nation, while sorrows were drowned in the field house, tailgates and living rooms of Buff faithful, Coach Tucker and staff once again crafted a second half game plan which would save the day.
In a game which became an instant classic in this storied rivalry, CU went scoreless in its first seven drives and then finished the game scoring on its last six (excluding the intentional kneel to end regulation). Even though we never led until OT, once CU scored it’s first points deep into the third quarter, there was a budding sense that we were going to win. Witnessing the longest play from scrimmage in CU history (94-yard flea-flicker to KD Nixon) certainly helped the cause. Suddenly, NE couldn’t stop CU. In the second half NE got out-coached, out-muscled and out-hustled (I’m not sure all those need to be hyphenated, but hopefully you get the point). CU wanted it more. In a blink of an eye (literally), the game was over. A missed field goal in OT ushered in the halcyon days once again for Buff Nation as fans rushed the field with reckless abandon (beat NE = rush field). A 7-hour drive back to Lincoln for the sea of red suddenly got a lot longer. O Big Red, where art thy stink now?
Week Three Preview
CU vs Air Force (Folsom 11 AM)
While Coach Tucker denies it (which of course every coach would), Air Force represents a trap game. Coming off two emotional rivalry wins, one week away from Pac-12 play, and a offensive scheme that none of these players have faced, a talented and loose Air Force squad comes to town with zero to lose. Don’t be surprised if the Buffs are down early against the Air Force Falcons. The triple-option is rarely seen (only Army, Air Force, Navy and GA Tech run it), is difficult to play against (it calls for extreme patience and discipline on the defense), and it’s even more difficult to practice against (pretty tough to get Scout team to give a good look for the starting defense).
If CU wins this game, they should be ranked in the top 25. More on that next week if it that comes about. It’s great to see CU playing Air Force once again after a 45-year hiatus. I would love to see CU rotate out CSU, Wyoming and Air Force every third year. This game will be close in the first half. CU will begin to pull away in the second half and win by double digits to go 3-0 on the season and set their sites Pac-12 play. Tomorrow calls for perfect weather, in the perfect venue in the best city in the world. These are indeed the best of times. Dickens would be proud.
As predicted CU thrashed CSU by three touchdowns (see below if you didn’t read last weeks Buff Nation season predictions). Perhaps thrash is too dramatic a word, but CSU was never going to win. The Rams always play hard against their big brother, therefore it’s difficult to tell how good CU is after the Rocky Mtn Showdown (one of the reasons I hate opening against CSU).
For the Buff doubters, the Rams seemed to score at will during the first half. Very concerning given every other team we play this season is better than the Rams. For the Buff believers, 1-0 is 1-0 and the half-time adjustments on both sides of the ball were effective. ALWAYS a good sign. Anyway, with the Rams in our rear-view mirror, we move on…
Week Two Preview
Nebraska is in town. It’s true that a win is a win, but some wins resonate more than others. I remember rushing the field in ’86 after beating #3 Nebraska. In 2001, in the best game I’ve ever witnessed at Folsom, CU destroyed #2 NE 62-36 (they should loop those highlights on the big screen during every stoppage of play tomorrow), and in one of the best football road-trips I have ever taken (Texas A&M next year), watching CU come from behind to beat NE in Lincoln last season still makes me smile, and in Pavlov dog fashion, makes me want to crack open a Coors Light. All games matter. Nebraska games just matter most.
NE comes in ranked #25 in the country. They are overrated. CU is ranked #67. They are under-rated. NE is under pressure to live up to the hype. CU is under pressure to create hype. Both programs feel they have the coach which can turn their respective programs around. Something has to give. If CU can control the line of scrimmage on defense and force NE QB Martinez to pass from the pocket, CU will win. CU will put points on NE’s black shirts (BTW, are they still allowed to still call themselves that even though they gave up over 30 points per game last year and 35 to #121 South Alabama last week?). The weak link right now for the Buffaloes is their defense. Crack that nut and we will be bowling for sure. If only we had an awesome top-shelf former Defensive Coordinator as our head coach. Oh, wait. Perfect. CU figures it out on defense and continues to roll on offense. CU wins this one by 10.
It is with tremendous joy and celebration that I welcome you back to another season of CU Football. This is the 4th annual Buff Nation Football preview and analysis. If you are receiving this email, you were either on the distribution list last season, or I added you based on your known interest in Buff football. Feel free to ping me anytime to be removed. (Briefer) weekly updates to follow.
2019 Season Preview (game predictions below):
Feeling a little bit like Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day, the Buffs once again enter the season with a bitter taste from season prior and questions abound. The Buffs are the vogue (well deserved?) pick to finish at the bottom of the Pac-12 South. Although loaded with talent at skill positions, no one really wants to step out and say CU is going to be good. After over a decade of brow beating and broken hearts, it’s easier to just stay on the sidelines and take a wait and see approach. Not going to happen in this preview though. The Buffs are going to shock the nation and themselves. Game predictions below. Go Buffs!
Friday August 30, 2019, Colorado State (@ Mile High)
The Mel Tucker era kicks off in style as CU thrashes CSU by more than three touchdowns. CSU simply doesn’t have anyone on their squad that can keep up with Laviska “so good to have you back” Shenault. Steven “remember not to throw it to the other team” Montez puts on a passing clinic and Tucker has the Buffs playing with a high level of energy early. CU 1-0
September 7, Nebraska (Folsom)
It doesn’t get better than this. Hate is good. In a throw-back Big-8 clash of the titan’s rivalry game, the Cornhuskers return to Folsom followed by their Husker Nation faithful (looking for any excuse to visit paradise). Nebraska fans are some of the most gracious hosts in the country and we should return the favor – but not on the football field. CU will prevail by the skin of their teeth (ala last year) and have Boulder buzzing with wonder of the possibilities of the 2019 season. CU 2-0
September 14, Air Force (Folsom)
A classic trap game (coming on the heels of playing emotionally charged games against rivals CSU and NE, and just before Pac-12 play), CU tees off against Air Force for the first time in 45 years. The true testament of Tucker’s coaching ability will be on display here as CU refuses to come out flat and takes care of business against the deceptively respectable Falcons team. CU 3-0
September 21, @ Arizona State
Pac-12 play begins, and ASU is as good a first game as Buff Nation could hope. ASU is over-rated and should be vulnerable to an already proven Buff team. If CU is healthy coming into this game (CU is thin across the board except at the receiver position), CU will pull off a big victory in Tempe. CU 4-0
October 5 Arizona (Folsom)
This is one of the most interesting games of the season. Two years ago, CU awoke the sleeping giant by knocking out AZ QB1 and introducing AZ QB2 Khalil Tate to the world. Tate RUSHED for 327 yards that night. Last year Tate PASSED for 350 yards. CU has been at Tate’s mercy. This is the game where Tucker must prove that CU has improved enough to shut elite players down. In front of a Folsom Frenzy crowd, CU does exactly that, keeping Tate to modest numbers and securing the win. CU 5-0 (yup 5-0!).
Friday October 11, @ Oregon
De-ja vu all over again? CU was 5-0 last year and then proceeded to rattle off 7 straight loses. We won’t pick that scab, but winning the first five games of the 2019 season will feel shockingly queasy. There are not bowl berths given out for five wins. Not until #6 win arrives can Buff Nation breath a collective sign of relief. Unfortunately, #6 won’t happen this week (or next for that matter). OR is good and they have one of the best QBs (Justin Herbert) in the nation. CU loses its first game of the year. CU 5-1
Saturday, October 19 @ Washington State
CU absorbs it’s second loss of the season at the hands of a good Washington State Cougars team. CU is much improved, but not yet ready to take the next step of winning these types of games on the road (next year oh please, oh please). CU is still in pole position to accomplish their season goals (which I assume includes getting to a bowl game already). CU 5-2
Friday, October 25, USC (Folsom)
The game of the season. The victory CU points to years to come which marked the turn of the program. Nationally televised game elusive bowl eligibility on the line, and who comes into town but the spoiled, me-first USC Trojans. Coach Tucker delivers a pre-game speech to the team along the lines of “We must hang together, or certainly we will all hang separately.” CU wins in a close one, and illustrates that in football, teams will over individuals. Players have bought into what Tucker is selling. Get your bowling shoes ready, because CU just punched its ticket for the post season. CU 6-2
Saturday, November 2, @ UCLA
UCLA plays a bit soft. Under Chip Kelly they are also a bit gimmicky. Both play into the hands of a Buff defense that should be schooled by now (nine weeks into the season) on how to do your job. Add in a CU offense which could quite possibly be leading the Pac-12 in total yards, and CU wins on the road at the Rose Bowl. CU 7-2
Saturday, November 9, Stanford (Folsom)
While CU is rolling, and has exceeded everyone’s expectations, the toughest part of the schedule is yet to come and CU is vulnerable. The next three weeks are going to be a slog. A sound Stanford Cardinal team comes into Folsom and secures a relatively easy and somewhat disappointing victory. Coach Tucker can’t work miracles in a single season, and a thin Buff squad coming into the season is beginning to show its wears. Unless some second-string D-line and O-line help carry the load, Buff Nation is going to have to grin and bear the last three weeks of the season before bowl season. CU 7-3
Saturday, November 23, Washington (Folsom)
Even with an extra week of rest, CU doesn’t have the firepower to beat the Huskies. CU plays better than they did against Stanford, but still comes up short. No one is too surprised, and Buff Nation remains relatively happy with the body of work the season has produced (beggars can’t be choosy). CU 7-4
Saturday, November 30, @Utah
Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 South not to have won the division since inception. They always tend to be ranked in the top 25, yet somehow find a game or two to stub their toe on. Unfortunately, I don’t think they stub their toe here. In a well fought game which, ironically breathes some fresh life back into the Buffs heading into their bowl preparation, Utah defeats CU in this last regular season game. CU 7-5
2019 Season Summary
In truth, CU can be anywhere from 4-8 to 8-4. The key goal is to secure a bowl berth. Anything less will be disappointment – even given the harder schedule and new coaching staff. Either way, CU’s home schedule is one of the most attractive in the country. There overall schedule is one of the most difficult in the country. Buff Nation has been waiting a long time for some redemption (and respect). That road begins in less than six hours when CU takes on CSU at Mile High. Hope to CU there (and every home game this season). Who’s got it better than us? Nobody!
