Happy Friday! I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving.
Week Thirteen Review
CU 20, Washington 14
Boom! Don’t change your socks, don’t change your shirt, don’t shave. Whatever winning streak superstition you hold on to out of belief or recreation, do it. The Buffs are rolling. Last Saturday’s win over Washington marked the fifth largest upset (CU was a 14.5-point underdog) in school history. In an age where Buff Nation has little to cheer about (outside of our annual beat down of NE (gotta love it)), the last two game Colorado have given Buff Nation hope (ah, there is that word again).
This win was big. For context the Huskies WON the Pac-12 last season and have pummeled the buffs the last NINE TIMES by a combined score of 340 to 128 (an average of 24 point (rounding up). While winning is certainly better than losing (reference link from two weeks ago for clip), it was the way CU won which instills confidence that this thing (return to dominance) is happening. From kickoff to victory formation, CU won with a stout defense, hard nose running game and disciplined special teams (including arguably the best punt you will ever see in college football)…and yes, Steven Montez, he of late-night Fortnight, showed up for the second game in a row and played like a legit Pac-12 QB. He gave Buff Nation all he had in the victory and kudos to him for doing so. Yet, at the end of the day, it was the defense that reigned supreme.
Win and CU goes bowling. Lose, and the Buffs go home for the season to ponder what could have been (missed PAT vs Air Force, missed fumble recovery vs USC). Either way, the Buffs are back and on a trajectory any fan wants to see this time of year. The Buffs are playing their best ball of the season. A win at Utah tomorrow would represent the largest pre-game point spread win in CU history (the Buffs are a 28+ underdog).
Utah is legit across the board. They have several seniors on defense who will be nominated for Pac-12 honors. They also have the best QB / WR tandem in the conference and one of the best running backs. CU will have to play out of their minds to keep this game close. Inclement weather should help level the playing field. A win at Utah tomorrow would pop the top on this program. I don’t see that happening, but Tucker has this team dialed in and if CU holds Utah to similar 3rd down stats (see below) as they did Washington…oh boy oh boy oh boy…it will be an early Christmas for Buff Nation.
Final Thought
One stat from the Washington game which I had calculate by hand as I was in disbelief when I read it, the Huskies ran 17 plays on third down for a total of a negative 30 yards. Good things happen when that happens.
CU had its second and final bye of the season. It was hopefully a chance for Laviska Shenault and others to heal up for the final two games of the season.
Week Thirteen Preview
CU (4-6) vs Washington (6-4) – Saturday 8PM, Folsom Field (ESPN)
As disappointing as this season has been, it’s sad to see the season come to an end. Tomorrow evening the Buffs take on the Washington Huskies for their last home game of 2019 season. For 16 seniors this will be the last time they play on Folsom field, and probably forever. One of those Seniors is QB1 Montez whom I have often accused of being late-night Fortnight Montez rather than QB1 Montez. It’s been a long and difficult run with this guy. That said, Montez holds 35 school records and needs 300 yards passing and 1 td pass to hold those two records as well.
As infuriating as Montez has been (sometimes it feels like this is our penance), Montez STILL has one more chance to hook up Buff Nation, and for all of us to forever speak fondly of how it was in his twilight moments when he shined the brightest. A victory on Saturday would wash away all the tears. A win Saturday would usher in a new era of Buffs football. A victory Saturday would be a fitting ending to the career of a QB who holds all the records outside of the ones that matter.
Final Thought
CU currently has the 33rd rank recruiting class in the nation (and rising). This is the highest ranking in over a decade (Tucker effect). Recruiting is the life blood of any college football program. Players make plays. Players win games. Recruits want cool uniforms (check), cool facilities (check), cool college atmosphere (check), the opportunity to play (check) and a winning program so they can brag to their friends (in process). A win against the reigning Pac-12 champion Huskies on national television in front of a frenzy crowd would make a clear statement that CU is on the rise and as a recruit you can be part of something bigger than yourself. Something that will shock the world and you can be an architect in the build. Something you can tell your grandchildren about how you were a part of CU’s emergence as a football powerhouse. Winning Saturday would have a high return on victory for CU and it’s recruiting efforts.
Final Thought #2
Saturday will be Laviska Shenault’s last game as a CU Buff. While only a junior, Laviska will declare for the NFL draft. See him one last time this Saturday before you begin seeing him on Sundays.
On another epic Saturday at Folsom (no place better), the faithful Buff Nation turned out in masses (CU leads the Pac-12 in attendance with an 101% capacity average), to watch the Buffs continue to exercise the demons associated with turning a program around. CU’s defense seemingly came out of nowhere to pitch a shutout, well not really a shut out, but it certainly felt like it, making Stanford look pedestrian. In the end it was an instant CU iconic football moment when Shenault literally willed his was to a had to have it fourth and 1, to put the Buffs in field goal range to win the game (see below). The win breathed fresh air into this program. Everyone knows it. Everyone feels it. Winning is better than losing (excuse the language).
Week Twelve Preview
CU Bye
CU has a welcomed bye this week. A chance to get some key players healed up as we head into our final home game of the season next week Saturday 11/23 against Washington. Everything is still on the tables for the Buffs. Here’s to hoping we beat Washington, but more on that in next Friday’s report. For now…winning is indeed better than losing. Especially when you have a bye.
Final Thought
During last Saturday’s game, Tucker had over 80 recruits in town. The following day, two of them (one a four star) committed to join the CU program in the Fall. Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football. Players make plays. Players win game. Tucker may not have the Win / Lose record we were hoping for this season, but he is winning on the recruiting trail, and that may actually be more important than bowling this year. Our current trajectory for this program is more important than our current state.
Hope. It doesn’t make for a good business strategy, but it does serve as one of life’s basic tenants. A prominent theme in our world’s three major religions (Christianity, Judaism, Islam), hope is also a requirement for Buff nation (some consider college football a fourth religion). As CU’s seasons holds in the balance, and seemingly slips through our fingers every weekend, the outlook for the Buffs (hopefully) is bright.
In news that shocked the College football world this week, the #1 prospect (Antonio Alfano) in the Nation (yup, nation), is transferring from Alabama to CU. Yes, our CU Buffs are getting a 5-star wrecking ball of a player to boost our defensive line and program. The street credit this news bring to the program should be exponential. While football is the ultimate team sport and one player doesn’t a program make (exhibit A – Laviska Shenault), the news should open up the doors to some high-quality recruits looking to join forces with Alfano and the Buffs. This was never a one-year turn-around effort, but we are directionally correct (see final thought at bottom).
Oh yeah, in other news CU lost to UCLA last week. CU quickly sprinted out to a 0-17 hole like seemingly only the Buffs can do, and worked the rest of the night to climb out. A couple missed field goals was damaging, and CU never looked in sync. A missed opportunity that never really got off the ground. Did I mention the nation’s #1 recruit is transferring to CU?
Week Eleven Preview
CU (3-6) vs. Stanford (4-4) – Folsom Field, 1:10 PM Kickoff
Stanford. This a game CU can and should win. Perhaps a slight upset if they do, but certainly nothing to rush the field about (ah, remember Nebraska? That was awesome.). Stanford is a mediocre Pac-12 team. CU should be able to outpace the Cardinal (what is a Cardinal anyway?) on offense, dependent on whether QB1 Montez or Fortnite Montez shows up. It would also be good (awesome) to see Laviska Shenault (arguably the biggest tease in CU history) stay healthy for an entire game.
While CU needs to win it’s three remaining games to become bowl eligible (here’s to…wait for it…hoping), ironically a bigger return on victory (ROV) would be increasing the probability that all the top-shelf CU recruits in town for the game decide CU (and Tucker, and Alfano) are the place they want to place their bets.
Final Thought
2020 – CU goes to bowl game.
2021 – CU finishes season ranked in top 25.
2022 – CU wins Pac-12 Title
2023 – CU finish season ranked in Top 10 and in playoff conversation
It was not to be. CU had their chances this past Friday evening in front of a packed “Blackout” Folsom Field crowd. Yet an inability to get critical stops at the end of the game (CU had a ten point lead going into the fourth quarter), recover fumbles (either would of prevented a USC TD), and untimely and dumb penalties led to another heart breaking loss.
While there are no moral victories in the high-stakes Power-5 college football world, there are positive to be had from CU’s Friday night effort. Unlike the blow out losses to OR and WSU, against USC, CU showed some heart. They showed some grit, and thankfully, they should some improvement. The running game showed signs of life (the Buffs are set at RB for the next few years), Montez had his best game in weeks (but not without his brain freeze moments), and the young secondary (KJ Trujillo) held their own for most of the game. Our time will come.
Week Ten Preview
CU (3-5) @ UCLA (3-5)
CU plays on the road at UCLA in the Rose Bowl tomorrow night at 7PM. CU wins this one in a down to the wire game to get that elusive fourth win of the season. Laviska Shenault follows up on his big USC performance with more high-light reel plays to prove the difference maker. Montez also plays a solid game (he knows he is running out of time as a Buff, and certainly doesn’t want to be known as the QB who holds all the records yet held the program back). KD Nixon sneaks in there for a TD as well.
While improved (UCLA just beat a ranked ASU team last weekend), I still think UCLA is soft and can be had. The Bruins will score their points against our thin defense, but the Buffs will fight and keep the game close until the end. CU is due. They are not as bad as their record. Hopefully UCLA is.
Final thought
Until there are fewer games remaining than victories CU needs to secure for a bowl game, the dream isn’t over. CU has four game remaining and needs to win three of them to go bowling.
